Militarization of the Nordic Arctic: Demographic, Economic and Environmental Implications

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Economic reforms and military spending from NATO’s increased presence materializes in militarization of the Nordic Arctic and affects demographic, economic and environmental domains in the Nordic Arctic. Photo: superphoto.be

The Arctic Institute NATO Series 2024-2025

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According to the new US Arctic strategy, released in July 2024, Finland, Norway, and Sweden are essential to NATO due to their military capabilities, extensive experience in the Arctic, and strategic positioning, which enhance regional cooperation, deterrence, and the alliance’s overall security in the High North.¹⁾Katz J (2024) Pentagon unveils arctic strategy bolstered by new high north NATO allies Finland, Sweden. Accessed 9 August 2024; Breaking Defense, 22 July, https://breakingdefense.com/2024/07/pentagon-unveils-arctic-strategy-bolstered-by-new-high-north-nato-allies-finland-sweden/. Accessed 9 August 2025 Beyond the evident security implications of NATO’s presence in the Arctic, there are also significant implications for Arctic communities and the environment that have not been sufficiently discussed. The Nordic Arctic regions face challenges due to the demographic situation, with declining youth populations and rising older demographics. Despite national policies and alarm from the Norwegian Ministry of Defense aimed at addressing these issues,²⁾Ministry of Defense (2024) The Norwegian Defence Pledge, https://www.regjeringen.no/contentassets/0faae3f9efcf4c2fa0f43e2a15bfbc1d/en-gb/pdfs/the-norwegian-defence-pledge.pdf. Accessed 9 August 2025 there has been limited progress. Economic reforms and military spending from NATO’s increased presence materializes in militarization of the Nordic Arctic and affects demographic, economic and environmental domains in the Nordic Arctic, which here represents northern regions of Finland (Lapland, Kainuu, North Ostrobothnia), Norway (Finnmark, Troms and Nordland) and Sweden (Norrbotten and Västerbotten). At the same time, there is a notable lack of in-depth research on the demographic, economic and environmental impacts of heightened military activity in the Nordic Arctic. This article examines the unexplored implications of increased militarization on the Nordic Arctic’s future, with a particular focus on its demographic and environmental consequences. Such discussions are essential for developing policies that align security priorities with sustainable regional development.

Demographics of Nordic Arctic regions

The demographic shifts with shrinking youth and working age population and growing elderly population are especially pronounced in the Nordic Arctic regions.³⁾Middleton A (2019), Is the Future of the European Arctic Socially Sustainable?, 26 February, https://www.thearcticinstitute.org/future-european-arctic-socially-sustainable/. Accessed 1 July 2025 In Finland, studies project a significant decrease in the population of children and adolescents (aged 0-14) in the Finnish Arctic regions of North Ostrobothnia and Lapland by 2040, with North Ostrobothnia facing a 17.2 percent decrease and Lapland a 20.3 percent decrease. Similarly, Norway is expected to see a decline in its youth population, particularly in Nordland and Finnmark, where the population of children and adolescents under the age of 19 is projected to decrease by 9 percent and 5.6 percent, respectively, by 2050.⁴⁾Middleton A & Zhurova Saether E (2024) International Talent for the Arctic: Strategies and Challenges. Arctic Yearbook 2024, https://arcticyearbook.com/arctic-yearbook/2024/2024-scholarly-papers/536-international-talent-for-the-arctic-strategies-and-challenges. Accessed on 1 January 2025 By 2040, it is anticipated that the working-age population (15-64 years old) in North Ostrobothnia will decrease by 3 percent, while in Lapland, this age group’s population will decrease by 10.3 percent. Conversely, the national average for Finland will see a 2.2 percent decrease in the active population.

Similarly, in Sweden, the Arctic regions of Norrbotten and Västernorrland are projected to experience notable population declines by 2040, primarily due to higher death rates than birth rates. Norrbotten’s population is expected to decrease by over 6 percent, with a reduction of 16,000 people, including a significant drop in the number of young people (0-24 years old). Västernorrland faced a 7 percent reduction, losing 18,000 people, with a similar decline in its young population. These trends are more pronounced than the national average, with Västernorrland experiencing the largest decline among the Swedish counties. Addressing these demographic shifts is crucial for the sustainable development of these regions.⁵⁾Statistics Sweden (2024) The future population in counties and municipalities of Sweden, 2024-2040. https://www.scb.se/en/finding-statistics/statistics-by-subject-area/population-and-living-conditions/population-composition-and-development/population-projections/pong/publications/the-future-population-in-counties-and-municipalities-of-sweden-2024-2040/. Accessed 9 August 2025 Hence, it is important to understand how growing militatization of the Nordic Arctic as the result of accession of Sweden and Finland to NATO may have implications on the demographic situation in the Arctic regions of these countries.

NATO’s impact on military bases in the Arctic regions

The military landscape in Northern Europe has shifted due to Sweden and Finland’s NATO membership. Finland joined NATO on April 4, 2023, and Sweden on March 7, 2024. Both nations committed to NATO’s defense spending guidelines, with Finland already allocating 2.4 percent of its GDP to defense, whereas Sweden aims to reach the 2 percent target by 2024.⁶⁾Defence Expenditure of NATO Countries (2014-2024). https://www.nato.int/nato_static_fl2014/assets/pdf/2024/6/pdf/240617-def-exp-2024-en.pdf. Accessed 9 August 2024 Norway is projected to meet the 2% GDP guidelines by 2024, with the government proposing additional funding to ensure this.⁷⁾Ministry of Defense (2024) The Norwegian Defence Pledge, https://www.regjeringen.no/contentassets/0faae3f9efcf4c2fa0f43e2a15bfbc1d/en-gb/pdfs/the-norwegian-defence-pledge.pdf. Accessed 9 August 2025 Moreover, at the 2025 NATO Summit in The Hague, member countries committed to investing 5 percent of their GDP annually by 2035 on defense and broader security, including at least 3.5 percent for core defense and up to 1.5% for wider security needs such as infrastructure, cyber defense, and innovation.⁸⁾The Hague Summit Declaration. https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/official_texts_236705.htm. Accessed 3 July 2025 Much of the spending in the Nordic Arctic is concentrated on strengthening Norway, Sweden, and Finland’s military presence in the north in the military bases.

For this analysis, all data were collected using open-source materials. Several military bases were identified in the publications as being the most affected by the increasing military presence in the Arctic regions, including NATO forces.

Sweden is increasing its defense investments in the north, with two subarctic mechanized brigades based in Boden and Skövde, which are set to be operational by 2028, as part of a broader plan to boost endurance and capabilities through upgraded vehicles, tanks, and ammunition.⁹⁾Staalesen A (2024), Sweden beefs up defence forces in the North, 29 October, https://www.thebarentsobserver.com/security/sweden-beefs-up-defence-forces-in-the-north/419631. Accessed 1 July 2025 In Sweden, publications do not provide exact personnel numbers at the Luleå-Kallax Air Base post-Sweden’s NATO accession but mention the U.S. Air Force units, including bomber crews and 28th Bomb Wing support staff, alongside Airmen offering Base Operating Support Integrator (BOS-I) capabilities.¹⁰⁾Silver C (2024) U.S. bombers arrive in Sweden for Bomber Task Force 24-2. Airforce Global Strike Command, 23 February, https://www.afgsc.af.mil/News/Article-Display/Article/3685433/us-bombers-arrive-in-sweden-for-bomber-task-force-24-2/. Accessed on 1 November 2024 North Sweden will serve as a logistical corridor supporting allied forces, making it possible to move personnel and equipment quickly from Norwegian harbours through Sweden and into Finland.¹¹⁾Swedish Armed Forces (2025), Unique Capabilities in Focus when NATO’s Military Committee Visited Sweden, 20 March, https://www.forsvarsmakten.se/en/news/2025/03/unique-capabilities-in-focus-when-natos-military-committee-visited-sweden/. Accessed on 3 July 2025

Norway’s 2024 Long-Term Defense Plan outlines a major expansion of land forces including growing the army from one to three brigades and the Home Guard to 45,000 troops, implying increased personnel and capabilities at key border garrisons like Garrison of Sør-Varange (GSV), despite the lack of unit-specific data.¹²⁾Mayer P (2025) Norway, Sweden, Finland: Europe’s First Line of Arctic Defense, 29 May, https://www.securityoutlines.cz/norway-sweden-finland-europes-first-line-of-arctic-defense/. Accessed on 3 July 2025 Norway has reactivated Bardufoss Air Station, its oldest, for F-35 jets to enhance operational resilience. Established in 1938 and inactive for 40 years, Bardufoss reopened in June 2024 to support the dispersal of aircraft across Nordic locations during the crises. Upgraded mountain hangars protect F-35s, and their strategic position will likely see increased allied activity, bolstering air power in Northern Norway.¹³⁾Defense News Airspace (2024). Norway reactivates Bardufoss Air Station after 40 years for F-35s., 1 July, https://www.armyrecognition.com/news/aerospace-news/2024/norway-reactivates-bardufoss-air-station-after-40-years-for-f-35s. Accessed on 5 November 2024 Moreover, Bodø is being developed into a key NATO command and control hub, with the Reitan mountain facility set to host NATO’s third Combined Air Operations Centre (CAOC) responsible for Nordic and High North airspace, alongside the modernized Norwegian Joint Headquarters.¹⁴⁾Bye HG (2025) NATO Air Operations Centre to Be Located in Bodø: Emphasis on the Importance of the High North, 21 May, https://www.highnorthnews.com/en/nato-air-operations-centre-be-located-bodo-emphasis-importance-high-north. Accessed on 4 July 2025

Subsequently, the Andøya air station in Northern Norway will be revitalized as a strategic base for long-range surveillance drones and Allied aircraft. Andøya Air Station, initially designated for closure by the 2016 parliamentary decision, underwent a reversal of plans in 2023, resulting in substantial revitalization efforts. Following the reversal, extensive upgrades and infrastructure expansions were implemented to enhance its operational capabilities. The station serves for Norway’s and NATO’s broader surveillance and defense network, reflecting Norway’s commitment to bolstering security in the High North.¹⁵⁾Berglund N (2024) Defense build-up takes shape, Newsineglish.no, 5 April, https://www.newsinenglish.no/2024/04/05/defense-build-up-takes-shape/. Accessed 30 October 2024

Setermoen Garrison, Norway’s largest military base, houses around 1,000 soldiers and 500 officers and is currently expanding under the Supplementary Defense Cooperation Agreement (SDCA) with the United States.¹⁶⁾Ministry of Defense (2024). Norway and USA agree on additional agreed facilities and areas under the SDCA, Government of Norway, 2 February, https://www.regjeringen.no/en/aktuelt/norway-and-usa-agree-on-additional-agreed-facilities-and-areas-under-the-sdca/id3023830/. Accessed 6 November 2024 Setermoen faces infrastructure strain due to increased activity without corresponding facility growth and will be receiving upgrades, including new barracks and training facilities, to boost its operational capabilities.¹⁷⁾Ministry of Defense (2024) The Norwegian Defence Pledge, https://www.regjeringen.no/contentassets/0faae3f9efcf4c2fa0f43e2a15bfbc1d/en-gb/pdfs/the-norwegian-defence-pledge.pdf. Accessed 9 August 2025 The Porsangmoen military base, situated in Finnmark, Norway, serves as a crucial component in the Norwegian government’s strategic initiative to enhance armed forces. The base will undergo improvements to the existing infrastructure and an extension of its firing ranges to accommodate increased personnel and resources. The plan is to develop Finnmark Landforsvar (FLF) into the Finnmark Brigade, which will have three manoeuvre battalions. Although the sources do not explicitly state how many battalions will be stationed in Porsangmoen, they indicate a significant concentration of personnel and resources at this base.¹⁸⁾Ministry of Defense (2024) The Norwegian Defence Pledge, https://www.regjeringen.no/contentassets/0faae3f9efcf4c2fa0f43e2a15bfbc1d/en-gb/pdfs/the-norwegian-defence-pledge.pdf. Accessed 9 August 2025

Finland’s entry into NATO added 1,340 kilometers to the Alliance’s direct border with Russia, creating a new strategic layer along its eastern frontier. Rovajärvi, covering 1,110 square kilometers, is the Finnish Army’s main artillery training area and the largest training area in Western Europe. Situated in Rovaniemi and Kemijärvi, Lapland, it hosts extensive national training, including a biannual two-week artillery conscript program. Exercise Lightning Strike 24, led by the Army Academy and part of the United States-led Dynamic Front 25 series, held in Rovajärvi and Rovaniemi from November 4 to 28, 2024, involving up to 3,600 soldiers, including 1,250 international troops, with Finnish forces from various units participating.¹⁹⁾Merivoimat (2024). The Army’s EX Lightning Strike 24 as a part of NATO’s largest ever artillery exercise series conducted in Europe, 15 October, https://merivoimat.fi/en/-//1950813/the-army-s-ex-lightning-strike-24-as-a-part-of-nato-s-largest-ever-artillery-exercise-series-conducted-in-europe. Accessed 13 November 2024

The Nordic Response 2024 exercise, held from March 3 to 14, involved over 20,000 personnel from 13 nations, focusing on joint operational capabilities in Arctic conditions through live-fire drills, amphibious landings, and aerial operations.²⁰⁾Edvardsen, A (2024) Nordic Response: Over 20 000 Soldiers From 13 Nations Will Practice Defending NATO’s Northern Flank, High North News, 2 February, https://www.highnorthnews.com/en/nordic-response-over-20-000-soldiers-13-nations-will-practice-defending-natos-northern-flank. Accessed 10 October 2024 Key exercises activities took place in northern Norway, Sweden, and Finland, at Bjerkvik, inner Troms, Alta, and central Finnmark. In future NATO’s Forward Land Forces (FLF) will be stationed in Rovaniemi and Sodankylä.²¹⁾Finishh Ministry of Defense Press Release (2025), Denmark, France, Iceland, Norway and United Kingdom to contribute to NATO Forward Land Forces in Finland, 24 June, https://www.defmin.fi/en/topical/press_releases_and_news/denmark_france_iceland_norway_and_united_kingdom_to_contribute_to_nato_forward_land_forces_in_finland.15120.news#a81bb126. Accessed 4 July 2025

Demographic and economic considerations

The Norwegian Ministry of Defence’s “Norwegian Defence Pledge” document identifies demographic changes as a critical threat to Norway’s defense capabilities, highlighting the challenges of an aging population, urban migration, and a shortage of skills and labor. To address these issues, it recommends flexible and targeted measures, such as geographic mobility initiatives, a substantial increase in personnel, improved living conditions in rural areas, and a focus on building a diverse and inclusive work environment.²²⁾Ministry of Defense (2024) The Norwegian Defence Pledge, https://www.regjeringen.no/contentassets/0faae3f9efcf4c2fa0f43e2a15bfbc1d/en-gb/pdfs/the-norwegian-defence-pledge.pdf. Accessed 9 August 2025

While it is challenging to calculate the overall increase in military personnel in the Arctic regions, the analysis shows that there will be a considerable increase in both stationed personnel and an influx of military staff taking part in joint exercises. The expansion of military bases in the Arctic, as elsewhere, affects both the regional economy and demographics, producing complex effects. These bases have the potential to stimulate local economies by creating jobs, boosting construction and logistics, generating demand for goods and services, and increasing local spending by personnel, which supports businesses and service providers.²³⁾Paloyo, AR, Vance, C, & Vorell, M (2010) The regional economic effects of military base realignments and closures in Germany. Defence and Peace Economics, 21(5-6), 567-579.

Economic influence extends beyond direct employment, as input-output models show multiplier effects that increase regional employment and income through associated defense procurement and R&D spending.²⁴⁾Braddon, D. (1995). The regional impact of defense expenditure. Handbook of defense economics, 1, 491-521. Norway established the Cold Weather Operations Centre of Excellence in 2020 at the Terningmoen military camp in Elverum. Although located outside the Arctic regions, it is the only NATO Center of Excellence in the Nordics that focuses on training and doctrine for extreme cold weather operations. In 2024, the city of Oulu proposed to establish a NATO Center of Excellence in Finland. This center will focus on dual-use technologies such as AI and quantum computing, aiming to support innovation, research, and training for NATO operations.²⁵⁾City of Oulu (2024) Nato COE Initiative in Oulu, 6GAICOE, 9 September, https://oulu.com/ictoulu/news/nato-coe-initiative-in-oulu-6gaicoe/. Accessed 15 September 2024

From a demographic point of view, military presence and establishment of research centers can drive population growth by increasing the attractiveness of the Arctic regions. For instance, in Oulu ICT expertise can foster innovation development for both civilian and military purposes, as the city was recognized as a dual-use technology hub.²⁶⁾ICT Oulu Spring 2025 Update Report (2025), 29 April, https://oulu.com/ictoulu/news/ict-oulu-spring-2025-update-report/. Accessed on 1 July 2025 Stemming from this growing military footprint, there is a pressing need to better understand its impacts on the Arctic region’s economy, environment and society.

Environmental concerns

Research finds that military training exercises compact soil and erode vegetation, leading to contamination and habitat loss beyond training areas.²⁷⁾Broomandi, P, Guney, M, Kim, JR, & Karaca, F (2020). Soil contamination in areas impacted by military activities: a critical review. Sustainability, 12(21), 9002 Although some restricted areas may allow limited ecological recovery, the environmental impact of military presence remains substantial, requiring rigorous monitoring and strong environmental protection. Furthermore, apart from pollution, air and sea-based military training can generate noise levels that exceed known thresholds for harming humans and wildlife.²⁸⁾Kuehne, L. M., Erbe, C., Ashe, E., Bogaard, L. T., Salerno Collins, M., & Williams, R. (2020). Above and below: military aircraft noise in air and under water at Whidbey Island, Washington. Journal of Marine Science and Engineering, 8(11), 923

The Norwegian military has established a comprehensive strategy to minimize the environmental impact during training exercises. This approach prioritizes safeguarding the environment and preventing ecological damage. Key elements include creating specific operational zones, establishing off-limit areas to protect sensitive ecosystems, and implementing structured reimbursement protocols for any environmental harm caused. To enhance transparency and address public concerns, the armed forces have set up dedicated communication channels, including a centralized contact point for reporting and inquiring about potential damage.²⁹⁾Norwegian Armed Forces (2024). Nordic Response 2024 – fact sheet. https://www.forsvaret.no/en/exercises-and-operations/exercises/nr24/media/NR24-EN-factsheet.pdf/_/attachment/inline/a456ad27-6e7b-49d0-bb84-b95d9a2e9e09:c07a0a32a221962a20c759b721ef7626b2a80747/NR24-EN-factsheet.pdf. Accessed on 1 August 2025

While these guidelines demonstrate a proactive approach, broader discussions on the long-term environmental impacts of Arctic military activities remain essential. Specifically, the effects of increased military presence and training exercises on Arctic ecosystems and, consequently, on Indigenous Peoples’livelihoods require a more comprehensive assessment. For instance, in Finnish Lapland, militarization results in a process that amounts to settler colonial land appropriation as discussed by Laura Junka-Aikio, thereby Saami people face significant difficulties in voicing concerns about the expansion of military land use, noise and increased traffic due to training exercise which disrupt traditional livelihoods such as reindeer herding. However, when Indigenous communities oppose such developments, their resistance is sometimes framed as unpatriotic, uninformed, or even as a potential threat to national security.³⁰⁾Junka-Aikio L (2025). Decolonising Arctic geopolitics and security: Subaltern security dilemmas of the Sámi in times of the green transition and militarisation of the Arctic. Nordic Review of International Studies, (4

To ensure environmental and social impact assessments due to increased militarization in the Nordic Arctic are meaningful and inclusive, accountability and transparency mechanisms must be established, particularly to integrate the voices of local and Indigenous communities in decision-making processes.

Arctic Military Build-up: A Demographic Solution?

The question of whether military build-up in the Arctic serves as a viable solution to demographic challenges remains complex and multifaceted. While military presence may contribute to population growth through increased regional attractiveness and employment opportunities, its comprehensive impact on regional economies, cultural dynamics, and social structures requires further investigation. This article has aimed to highlight the need for multidisciplinary research that extends beyond traditional security frameworks to examine the relationships between militarization, demographic shifts, and environmental consequences in the Arctic regions. Future research should analyze the immediate and long-term effects of military presence on Arctic communities’ environmental and social sustainability. Such a comprehensive understanding is crucial for informed policy-making that balances security objectives with sustainable regional development.

Alexandra Middleton is a Postdoctoral researcher at Oulu Business School, Finland.